Re: estimates as self-fulfilling prophesies?

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Posted by R. John Howe on April 14, 1999 at 17:43:55:

In Reply to: Re: estimates as self-fulfilling prophesies? posted by Marvin Amstey on April 14, 1999 at 07:46:27:

Dear Marvin et al -

You wrote:

: You mention a valuable point; I'm sure such behavior occurs from an unsure purchaser. But what about those collectors with some confidence? How do they and the less sure operate outside of an auction - with a dealer or other collector?

My thought:

It is my experience that purchases outside auctions can often be affected not by the auction estimates but by the recorded selling prices achieved at auction.

I have only bought one rug at auction. But I have bargained repeatedly on the basis of auction result research, supplemented with some rules I have learned are used to suggest how such prices should be adjusted for particular conditions. Often I have bought pieces without any really notion of what a "fair" price might be but have just gone with what I was willing to (or could)pay.

I have heard it suggested that "auction only" buyers of are of a particular (and not especially admired) sort and those who buy outside the auctions with dealers and from individuals are seen as more "confident"

I wonder if there's any relationship between where one buys and "sureness" at all. It seems to me that most rug sales situations are likely well populated with those who confident and those who are less so.


R. John Howe

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